1 · Risk of harm
Moderate
Overt harm probability 40%
2 · Transformation
Absent
PV stage 1 · Regime Person 1
Acute window
29d
Recurrence cycle
1.28y
Expected severity
2.24
Risk trajectory
Is the patient moving toward harm or toward stability over the next two years?
When risk concentrates
When overt harm is most likely to cluster if the pattern continues (%).
Instability map
Larger points: low coherence and high narcissistic load more likely to produce overt harm.
Recurrence profile
Approximate recurrence cycle from the ALC paper.