Independent Research, Co. Risk Simulator

The manuscript engine remains underneath. The display is simplified so a clinician can answer two questions quickly: risk of harm and evidence of transformation. Move sliders left or right to estimate risk.

Worldview coherence
Cultural narcissism
Resilience: bifurcation only
Exogenous controls affecting overt discharge
SES as detection-layer inhibition context

Risk of Harm
Low
Regime-sensitive read of overt harm risk
Transformation
Absent
Clinician-friendly read of developmental change
Acute Window
29d
Recurrence Cycle
1.28y
Expected Severity
1.62
Clinical Summary

Continuum Axis 0
P1P4P0P2P3
Overt Harm Probability
0–5%
Transformation Stage
0
Expected Severity
1.62
Current Regime
Person 0

Risk Trajectory

A simple view of whether the patient is moving toward harm or toward stability over the next two years.

When Risk Concentrates

This shows when overt harm is most likely to cluster if the current pattern continues.

Instability Map

Higher bubbles indicate combinations of low coherence and high narcissistic load that are more likely to produce overt harm.

Recurrence Profile

A simple view of the approximate recurrence cycle from the ALC paper.

How to Read This

The engine remains manuscript-based. The display is clinician facing to answer two questions quickly.

1. Is harm risk rising?Read the Risk of Harm label, overt harm probability, and risk trajectory first.
2. Is transformation present?Read the Transformation label, PV stage, and current regime second.
Bottom lineThis is not a diagnosis. It is a structured reading of escalation risk and developmental change.